Peramalan Nilai Tukar Kurs IDR Terhadap Dollar USD Dengan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing

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  • 19 Jun
  • 2020

Peramalan Nilai Tukar Kurs IDR Terhadap Dollar USD Dengan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing

In order to fulfil the needs of daily life, buying and selling transaction process require a medium of exchange which is generally accepted by both parties. Moreover, the medium of exchange is money. As the transaction among countries also require a medium of exchange that can be accessed by both parties. Indonesian economy is much more influenced by the international economy, so that the rupiah’s exchange rate is needed by the community in economic life. Indonesia’s economy is also affected by the economic conditions of other countries. One of them is Amerika, where Indonesia still has an international debt. The exchange rate can change anytime due to the market mechanism, so that the prediction of exchange rate for future periods is very necessary. Prediction or forecasting is an estimation that will come based on the data in the past based on scientific and quantitative research methods with the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Method and error analysis with the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) methods. The result of the study explained that the most appropriate forecasting method used in analyzing data is the exponential smoothing method with the forecasting result 0,9 with forecasting result in the February 14 period of 13,677.29 with MAD = 5,58 and MSE = 1,376.62.

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REFERENSI

REFERENSI

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